The S&P500 (ES) formed the first green daily candle yesterday in 5 days, but remains vulnerable going into today’s European morning. Significantly, ES has been rejected by upchannel resistance (on the weekly chart) and appears likely to retest the daily chart upchannel support in the next few days. Any daily close below the upchannel support (on the daily chart) dramatically increases the likelihood of a retest of the August low in the several days after. Volatility will surge today following the 830am EST release of US CPI data. The weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD are tiring. I am looking to go short in the red zone (of the daily chart), targeting the green zone for Monday. The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).
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